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| Russia-Ukraine War |
Russia-Ukraine War
The war between Russia and Ukraine has
entered its eighth day. Today, the world is so entangled in a global system
that the effects of this war are being felt all over the world. It is natural
for countries involved in this war or their allies to be affected by the war,
but even the most neutral and irrelevant countries are not immune to its
losses. The United States, the European Union, and NATO nations have all joined
Ukraine in their support.
But NATO and the United States have
gone so far as to fire statements to protect their borders and those of their
allies, but they have categorically announced that they will not send troops to
Ukraine against Russia. Thus, this war against Russia will have to be fought
only by Ukraine, although when the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was signed
with Ukraine, the international powers took responsibility for its protection
in exchange for its non-nuclear status. Today, these guarantors left Ukraine
alone to fight Russia. Ukraine has certainly received some financial, medical,
moral, or some form of military aid from them, but these things may not be
enough to save Ukraine from defeat at the hands of Russia.
From this point of view, there is a
very important lesson for Pakistan, because Pakistan's nuclear program has a
key role in Pakistan's defense and survival, and no alternative can
replace it. Therefore, Pakistan should not compromise on its nuclear deterrence
whatever be the circumstances. Rather, we should constantly upgrade it in
harmony with the latest requirements. In this regard, no global pressure or
economic crisis should be considered because there can be no compromise on
national security.
However, coming back to the topic
under discussion, if the strategic factors of the Russia-Ukraine war are to be
analyzed, they must be reviewed from several important angles.
First of all, as far as it is
concerned with the war of narrative, Russia is lagging far behind in this war
because the governments and people of most countries have sided with Ukraine. The
majority of media houses, outlets, and sources be it print or electronic, along
with social media giants, are reinforcing the stance of Ukraine and are not even
mentioning the Russian point of view properly.
A clear example of this at the
governmental level came at the UN General Assembly when Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov's speech was followed by several delegates leaving the
meeting without listening to his speech. On the other hand, Ukrainian President
Zalinski’s speeches are not only being heard in the parliaments but no effort is
being spared in praising him by making him a hero of the resistance. This
aspect underscores the importance of the narrative war.
From the perspective of defense and
war strategy, the fighting so far has resulted in considerable losses of lives,
properties, and military equipment on both sides. In addition to military
installations, arsenals, fighters, civilians have also suffered heavy losses.
Millions of migrants have migrated to neighboring European countries.
However, the surprising factor which
came unexpectedly in this war so far is that Russia has not shown any
remarkable display of its latest capabilities. Russia has bombed with planes
and helicopters, advanced military convoys with tanks, armored vehicles, miles
of military convoys that are completely exposed to the enemy, used ballistic
missiles, took off paratroopers after gaining air superiority in any area, siege of Ukrainian cities, the bombing of powerhouses, wiping out fuel
reserves, destruction or dismantling of airbases, radars, and defense systems,
attacking TV towers, off-airing Ukrainian TV broadcasts, cyber-attacks on
Ukrainian internet facilities, raining rockets, shelling fire rounds and bullets, one to one confrontations,
ground fights along with air attacks and combats, internal attacks by their
supporters, etc., all these are traditional war tactics which are more likely
to be considered as medieval strategies rather than modern warfare way of
fighting.
None of them was unexpected except just
one alleged incident where Russia has reportedly used some sort of a thermobaric
vacuum bomb, which sucks oxygen from the air and pulls it out leaving no space
to escape alive. Western analysts are puzzled by Russia's conventional approach
so far, because, despite the losses, Russia is refraining from fully
demonstrating its capabilities, and is only using conventional war strategies against
Ukraine. Of course, Russia has put its nuclear capabilities on standby to
counter any external interference, which is certainly a very dangerous
situation. From this angle, ground zero has become a hotspot flashpoint for a
nuclear war.
Currently, the world has mostly reacted
in the form of economic sanctions against Russia. In response to the economic
sanctions, Russia is trying to minimize its losses by resorting to alternative
sources, such as an alternative payment system under Chinese controlled payment
gateway “CIFT” after being cut off from the global payment gateway system
"Swift". Similarly, They are considering direct payments via digital
/ cryptocurrencies which are independent of any country's control. They are
trying to take immediate alternative measures.
Russian President Putin must have
planned these alternatives in advance since he has the potential for economic
planning. It is evident from his past when he returned to Russia after
completing his years-long spy mission in Germany before becoming president. He
continued his academic journey once again, and in his Ph.D. dissertation, he
proposed economic measures and policies that would put Russia back on its feet
after facing the economic catastrophe. After becoming in power, he succeeded in
achieving his economic targets up to a remarkable extent.
In addition, Russia is successfully
countering the economic sanctions with counter-economic pressure because the
longer the war lasts, the more devastating its negative effects on the world
economy will be. Its direct damage will reach the West, especially Europe.
Reliance on Russia to meet Europe's gas needs is not allowing European
countries to go far beyond in Russia's opposition. The Pakistani people are
well aware of the harms of gas shortages this winter. So, when gas shortages in
countries like Pakistan affected the entire country in winter, no science is
needed to understand what the effects might be on the countries whose
temperature stays negative throughout the year.
Moreover, when the productive capacity
of industrialized countries depends on gas, then the supply of gas from Russia
is an economic lifeline for these countries. By cutting this vein, Russia can
bring these countries to their knees at any time. That is why these countries
are reluctant to do more than make harsh statements or impose some economic
sanctions.
In addition to the dependence on gas,
one of the effects of the same Russian counter-economic pressure is the
increase in the prices of petroleum products. Today, the price of Brent crude
in the global commodity markets has reached one hundred and seventeen dollars
per barrel ($117 per barrel). How much more it could increase, and what impact
it would have on the global economy in the coming days, is a frightening nightmare.
Given the temporary relief in the prices of petroleum products in Pakistan, it
does not appear that the domestic economy will be able to withstand the
economic pressures of this relief for a very long time as the difference
between buying price in the global market and selling price in the local market
is continuously mounting and the gap is widening rapidly, exceeding one hundred
billion rupees, even though both the relief and the war are just beginning.
Apart from oil spikes, do you know
what is the most irritating increase? Wheat, the most basic human food. Russia
and Ukraine are among the world's five largest wheat exporters. Many countries
in the world, such as the Middle East, meet their wheat needs by buying from
these two countries. Even agricultural countries like Pakistan need these
countries to procure wheat to meet their shortages in times of need. At the
very least, fluctuations in commodity prices in global commodity markets affect
the local market in each country. And it is not just wheat, many more
agricultural commodities are exported by these two countries.
In any case, the outcome of the war is
a catastrophe. But given the situation here, we would like to reiterate the
statement made by the Pakistani leadership amidst Pakistan-India escalation
a few years ago:
Hope for the best, and be prepared for the worst.
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